مدل سازی الگوی پراکنش جغرافیایی-‌ اقلیمی کنه Tetranychus urticae در استان خراسان رضوی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 بخش تحقیقات جانورشناسی کشاورزی، موسسه تحقیقات گیاه‌پزشکی کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران.

2 مرکز تحصیلات تکمیلی، دانشگاه هوایی شهید ستاری، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

چکیده
کنه تارتن دو لکه‌ایTetranychus urticae   یکی از آفات همه جا‌زی بوده و به بسیاری از گیاهان در مزارع، باغ‌ها وگل‌خانه‌ها خسارت وارد می‌کند. شناخت پراکنش این کنه با استفاده از داده‌های اقلیمی کمک شایانی در جهت مدیریت بهتر این آفت می‌کند. تحقیق حاضر با استفاده از مدل مکسنت به بررسی پراکنش کنه‌تارتن دو لکه‌ای استان خراسان رضوی پرداخته است. این پژوهش با در نظر گرفتن تعدادی باغ‌ میوه به عنوان ایستگاه نمونه‌برداری انجام شد. مدل‌سازی پراکنش این آفت با استفاده از شش متغیر اقلیمی شامل حداکثر دمای گرم‌ترین ماه سال، حداقل دمای سردترین ماه سال، متوسط دمای گرم‌ترین فصل سال، متوسط دمای سردترین فصل سال، بارش گرم‌ترین فصل سال و بارش سردترین فصل سال از میان 19 متغیر اقلیمی و به همراه رکوردهای حضور گونه تهیه شد. برای ارزیابی نتیجه مدل‌سازی از تحلیل منحنی ROC و مساحت زیر منحنی AUC استفاده شد. با بهره‌گیری از آزمون جک­نایف مشخص شد که متغیرهای حداقل دمای سردترین ماه سال، میانگین دمای سردترین فصل و بارش سردترین فصل در پراکنش کنه تارتن دو لکه‌ای در استان خراسان رضوی نقش بسزایی دارند و در این میان حداقل دمای سردترین ماه سال نقش بیشتری دارد. مقدار میانگین سطح زیر منحنی ROC برابر 75/0 بدست آمد که نشانگر دقت بالای مدل بدست آمده برای این گونه است. سطح زیر منحنی AUC برابر 75/0 و برای داده‌های به کار رفته در تعیین اعتبار مدل برابر 65/0 است که نشان­دهنده قدرت تشخیص قابل قبول مدل است.
کلمات کلیدی: پراکنش کنه تارتن دو لکه‌ای، مدل‌سازی، MaxEnt،  متغیرهای اقلیمی

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling of geographical-climatic distribution pattern of Tetranychus urticae in the climate of Razavi Khorasan province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Rezaie 1
  • Reza JavanNezhad 2
1 1Zoology Research Department, Iranian Research Institute of Plant Protection, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO). Tehran, Iran.
2 Graduate Center, Shahid Sattari Aeronautical University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Abstract
The two-spotted spider mite Tetranychus urticae is one of the cosmopolite pests, which attack many agricultural and greenhouse plants. Recognizing the distribution of this mite using climate data can be of great help in better pest management. In this research, the MaxEnt model was used to study potential distribution of two-spotted mite in several stations (orchards) of Razavi Khorasan province. Modeling the distribution of the mite was based on six environmental predictors and presence records including maximum temperature of the hottest month of the year, minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year, average temperature of the hottest season of the year, average temperature of the coldest season of the year, precipitation the warmest season of the year and the coldest rainy season of the year among the 19 climatic variables. ROC curve analysis and the area below the AUC curve was used to evaluate the modeling results. According to the Jacknife test, variables of the temperature of the coldest season of the year, average temperature of the warmest season of the year and minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year were the most contributing in mite distribution modeling in this province and average temperature of the coldest season of the year was more important. The area below the AUC curve equal to 0.75 indicates the model obtained for this species has high accuracy. The area below the ROC curve is 0.75 and for the data used to validate the model is 0.65, which indicates the acceptable detection power of the model.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Keywords: Climatic variables
  • Distribution of two-spotted spider mite
  • Modeling
  • MaxEnt
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